News Worms
News Worms

Likelihood high tropical system will develop in Gulf of Mexico

"It also has an 80 percent chance of development within the next two days". But he says these systems tend to move more quickly than the models analyze and is expecting the area's wettest weather to be Thursday evening. A hurricane hunter aircraft Monday flew into it and a second storm approaching the southern Caribbean Sea, its first flight of the tropical season.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are watching two tropical systems in the Atlantic basin that have a potential to become tropical storms in the next couple of days.

If the system remains disorganized, it could have a broad wind field and dump excessive rains all along the Gulf.

Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days while the wave moves westward near 20 miles per hour over the tropical Atlantic.

In addition to the Gulf storm, tropical development is possible near the equator over the central Atlantic early this week. The exact track of this storm is very uncertain, with some models forecasting storm movement over Texas, some over the Florida Panhandle and others in between.

It's too early to say with any certainty where the center will come ashore. Regardless of the exact track, heavy rain appears to be the biggest forecast issue as wind shear will greatly limit the storms ability to gain any significant strength with regard the wind speeds. Heavy, flooding rain and coastal flooding will be possible. Forecast models develop this system and move it into the southern Gulf of Mexico, then track it toward the U.S. Gulf coast over the next 2-3 days. The use of the word potential in this naming system is new this year, and is being used for storms that aren't quite organized yet, but may still affect land areas with tropical storm conditions within 48 hours.

Depending on what this tropical system does, our forecast could differ greatly. However, sustained surface winds of between 40 to 50 knots (45 to 55 mph/73 to 89km/h) with higher gusts on the northern periphery of the potential storm are expected to impact Barbados late Monday into Tuesday morning.


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